Q4 2024 Snapshot: Elections and Voting Narratives in Latino Spaces Online

Need to Know 

  • Bad actors spreading disinformation and misinformation about elections and voting most frequently disseminate false and misleading claims about election processes and procedures — these often include claims about election fraud, ballot manipulation, and ineligible voters participating in the democratic process.

  • Sowing doubt about the legitimacy of election processes and outcomes heightens political tensions, undermines trust in electoral systems, and erodes citizens' confidence in democratic institutions and elected officials. In our 2024 March/April poll, we found that slightly more than a third of Latinos in our sample (38%) were either “not very confident” or “not at all confident” that votes would be cast and counted accurately on Election Day.

In this snapshot, we dive into why this issue is critical, examine the nature, dissemination, and impact of elections and voting narratives, and provide resources to combat false or misleading claims.

The following are the disinformation narratives and claims related to voting and elections that we have observed in recent years, which continue to be recycled and are expected to resurface leading up to, during, and after the November 2024 election.

Meta-narrative: Elections are fraudulent and can’t be trusted.

False and Misleading Claims:

  • Equating real irregularities in voting to mass electoral fraud (delays at polling places, ballot switching, machines not working or being hacked)

  • False claims of irregularities, including ballot switching, appearance of fake ballots

  • Accusing authorities (and in the U.S., Democrats specifically) of committing electoral fraud

  • Claiming that dead people are voting

  • False or misleading information about who has the right to vote

  • Claims of manipulation to prevent voting 

  • False or misleading information about the documentation someone should use to vote

  • Using disorganization on election day as false proof of voter fraud

  • Claims that surveys are manipulated

  • Candidate declarations that are false

Why do These Narratives Matter?

2024 has been a year full of elections across the hemisphere, with presidential elections occurring in  El Salvador, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Venezuela, Uruguay, and the United States. Information disorder online, particularly disinformation during election time, has been a regional concern for years. 

In the United States, Latinos remain a rapidly-growing subset of the population with diverse opinions and the power to influence election outcomes in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida (battleground polling by Equis can be found here). According to Equis, in 2020, there were 32.3 million eligible Hispanic and Latino voters. Latinos are also the nation’s largest racial or ethnic minority eligible to vote in a U.S. presidential election and the second-fastest growing minority group.

As the U.S. 2024 general election has unfolded, Latino communities have been targeted online with a swarm of false or misleading information, including varying claims alleging high volumes of ineligible voters are participating in elections and disenfranchising eligible voters by diluting their votes. In September 2024, we saw a Trump-allied group launch Spanish-language ads in battleground states warning noncitizens against voting. 

Earlier this year, reports also surfaced of a robocall falsely purporting to be President Joe Biden encouraging New Hampshire voters to stay home and forgo voting in the state’s primary. Though the January robocall was deemed to have largely failed at its goal of confusing voters, it gave audiences an early preview into the tactics information subverters would adopt as strategies to confuse voters and suppress turnout in the 2024 elections. 

Across the Americas, particularly in places like the United States, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, disinformation about electoral processes, including false information about the security of voting machines or voting ballots, has been exacerbating distrust and voter confidence in institutions. At the center of this crisis in public trust are government, media, and civil-society organizations. Oftentimes, these claims have been founded on conspiratorial or misleading allegations depicting ballot machines and election officials as compromised to alter electoral outcomes on behalf of left-wing figures or campaigns. 

The same or similar election-related narratives dating back to the 2016 elections in the United States and the 2018 elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have continued to proliferate in elections since. This was evident when Brazilians stormed the three seats of power on January 8, 2023, in a manner reminiscent of, and in large part exacerbated by similar narratives to what was seen in the United States leading up to January 6, 2021. 

Where and How are These Narratives Spreading?

In 2024, U.S.-focused false and misleading information about elections has continued to primarily center on rehashing existing claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election, and, beginning earlier this year, claims of noncitizens voting. In the period surrounding the 2020 and 2022 U.S. elections and the weeks that followed, Spanish-language accounts, hyper-partisan news outlets, and influencers based in the United States and Latin America perpetuated doubts about the fairness and safety of elections. They often highlighted typical mistakes, technical issues, and delays that occurred at polling locations, thereby raising concerns about the overall integrity of the U.S. electoral system and its outcomes.

While voter fraud disinformation does not appear to be spreading as widely as it did leading up to the 2020 election, partly because Americans are now widely aware of the narrative, these tactics of recycling disinformation remain the primary strategy employed by information subverters, and they have proven somewhat effective. According to a DDIA poll conducted in March and April 2024, false or misleading claims and narratives about elections, whether they pertain to fraud or “stolen elections,” were among the most widely seen, with over 40% of Latinos reported being familiar with the following false claims: 'Trump won the 2020 election' and 'Democrats are failing to secure the U.S. southern border to allow undocumented immigrants to vote for them in U.S. elections.' While 40% of our poll sample who had seen the claim rejected the claim that 'Trump won the 2020 election,' 26% were uncertain, and 34% believed it. Additionally, only 26% of our sample who had seen the claim about Democrats and border security rejected the claim regarding Democrats and border security, while 34% were uncertain, and 41% believed it.

DDIA conducted a follow-up poll in September 2024 and saw nearly identical results. In September, 41% believed it, 32% rejected it, and the remainder (27%) were uncertain. 

When directly asked about whether “non-citizens are regularly voting in national U.S. elections,” 27% of the 3,000 Latinos in our September sample agreed with this claim. While the non-citizens voting claim has been accepted by some Latinos, beliefs in these claims have not worsened over time.

This year, based on a narrative analysis of Spanish-language and Latino-focused content from the past 12 months, hyper-partisan news outlets and influencers from the U.S. and Latin America continue to focus on out-of-context or misleading stories that cast doubt on U.S. election outcomes and procedures. During the 2024 election cycle, election deniers, far-right political figures, and information subverters alike have doubled-down on largely unevidenced and outright false claims alleging illegal voters, including noncitizens and migrants, have been intentionally placed on voter rolls to the detriment of right-wing political campaigns. Claims about noncitizen voting echo the same false narratives about fraud in the 2020 election. It’s important to highlight that, under existing law, only citizens can legally vote. Noncitizen voting is illegal in federal and state elections across the country.

For example, one bilingual hyper-partisan media outlet with a presence across mainstream social media platforms shared various headlines claiming immigrants – both authorized and unauthorized – were being leveraged by Democrats in the U.S. as a strategy to subvert election outcomes. These claims have become the basis of existing plans to challenge election results in the U.S. – even before a single vote has been cast in many places. Much of what happened in Brazil in early 2023, including the storming of government buildings, mirrored what was seen in the 2020 U.S. elections, the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and the lead-up to 2022 midterms in the United States. Similarly, Spanish and Portuguese-language accounts in the United States and Latin America harnessed the Brazilian presidential election to cement the conspiracy that there are worldwide efforts and collusion to overthrow elections in the Americas. 

Throughout the week of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, numerous accounts and posts attempted to draw false parallels between long voting lines, fluctuating vote tallies, early predictions or delayed vote counts, and problems with voting machines in Arizona, Colorado, and Texas. These misleading connections fueled conspiracy theories suggesting a left-wing or “deep state” conspiracy aimed at overthrowing the election and thus undermining the integrity of the electoral system.

Problematic and misleading narratives about elections go far beyond the United States and Brazil. According to the Latin American Center for Investigative Journalism (CLIP), bad actors continue employing tactics like creating mock news sites and fake social media accounts to publish favorable stories and spread messages in support of their candidates or party in Mexico, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. In an example solidifying those findings, prior to Mexico’s general election, one manipulated social media account amplified an AI-generated audio of now-President Claudia Sheimbaum “admitting” her campaign was failing in a battleground Mexican state. These strategies by partisan actors or election deniers showcase the readiness information manipulators have to use false candidate declarations and manipulated media to sow voter distrust and confusion.

How will AI Impact the Elections? 

2024 elections are also occurring under a distinctly different set of circumstances, with generative AI capabilities becoming widely available for public use and further complicating the information environment. The advancement of generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Google Gemini has sparked concerns about their potential misuse in the context of this year’s many elections. 

Tech companies are beginning to implement policies to guide the use of their tools, but just as has happened with social media companies over the past decade, such terms are not yet being applied consistently or symmetrically across countries, contexts, or in non-English languages within the United States. Earlier this year, DDIA conducted a case study (more here), which clearly illustrates the ease with which users can use generative AI tools to maliciously target minority and marginalized communities in the U.S. with misleading content and political propaganda. More needs to be done by companies to ensure terms of service are being implemented equitably for ALL of the communities that use these tools. 

According to a DDIA poll conducted in March and April 2024, AI is still an emerging technology for most Latinos. A majority of Latinos in our survey were not regularly using generative-AI tools. Only 15% of Latinos surveyed were regularly using the most popular Generative AI tool, ChatGPT. That said, in countries like Mexico, we have observed the implementation of AI capabilities as part of broader information manipulation tactics to amplify claims of fraud or election interference by political campaigns or election officials. We have also seen AI used by campaigns to reach and communicate with their supporters. In the early stages of her campaign for president in Mexico, then-Senator Xóchitl Gálvez even used an AI spokesperson to communicate with supporters on social media.

We can expect to see AI used more frequently in the future (including in October and November 2024) to target voters in the U.S. with misleading content and political propaganda. A lack of exposure to AI may make it difficult for Latinos to fend off harmful content generated by these technologies. To address this, AI literacy training, akin to the adoption of digital literacy programs, could be crucial.

Such training would equip individuals with the skills to critically evaluate AI-generated content, understand the implications of AI in various sectors, and effectively navigate the digital landscape. As technology continues to evolve, fostering resilience through education and encouraging companies developing these technologies, both generative and non-generative, to be more mindful of societal impacts becomes increasingly important.

How to Be Ready for November 2024 (Guidance & Resources)

Latinos are the largest minority group in the United States and a dominant force in U.S. politics - 36.2 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in the 2024 elections. To combat the threat of information manipulation creating election-related confusion or suppressing turnout, voters must be able to access clear, fact-based reliable information. 

Community leaders, election officials, trustworthy media, and civil society groups altogether share a responsibility to provide audiences with the tools they need to make informed decisions and keep democracy alive. 

Trusted messengers must also meet Latinos where they are, including on popular platforms like WhatsApp, YouTube, and Facebook. Equis released the Latino Playbook earlier this year, emphasizing the need to reach different kinds of Latino audiences by diversifying targeting approaches, including using ZIP targeting, contextual targeting, and Spanish-language browser targeting.  Additionally, it’s important to engage Latinos where they consume news and information, and YouTube is a top news source for Latino audiences. 

Engaging directly with Latino communities is imperative for combatting disinformation. FactChequeado, for example, has formed a coalition of Latino-serving news outlets concerned about online falsehoods. The group works as a unified team, and has fact-checked presidential TV debates together. The content they produce is then shared and republished by all members of the coalition.

Conecta Arizona, on its WhatsApp public group, works in a similar way, engaging in conversations that pop up in the app and usually are related to mis/disinformation. This channel has managed to be a reliable source of unbiased information for citizens in that state. It is surely a powerful tool against polarization.

Offering easy-to-digest explainers is another track to be taken. Univision's Vota Conmigo consists of a platform where Latinos can find practical information about the U.S. election in Spanish. It is an interactive space where voters can find and check vital information about the democratic process.

A variety of helpful resources from civil society organizations are available to assist us in preparing for and combating the disinformation we expect to see around the 2024 U.S. election. These resources can empower individuals, organizations, and communities to counteract false narratives and make informed choices as we approach the elections.

Earlier this year, DDIA launched a guidebook with best practices for producing culturally competent prebunking messages for U.S. Latinos. The following are 14 recommendations:

Content Approach and Tone: 

1. Respect Your Audience’s Intelligence 

2. Back Assertions with Evidence and Examples

Messenger and Credibility: 

3. Keep Your Messengers Somewhat Neutral

4. Introduce Your Messenger

Cultural Relevance and Sensitivity:

5. Harness Entertainment, Pop Culture, and Humor

6. Harness Shared Values and “Latino” Cultural Cues

7. Partner with Latino Voices

Language and Communication:

8. Produce Content in English AND Spanish

9. Shy Away from the Use of Spanglish

10. Don’t Exaggerate Accents

Visual and Media Elements: 

11. Tailor Content to the Medium

12. Mix Visual Effects

Continuous Improvement: 

13. Gather and Incorporate Audience Feedback into Your Content

Accessibility: 

14. Employ Visual, Hearing, and Language Accessibility

The following are recommendations from Voting Rights Lab on how to talk about voter verification:

DOs:

  1. Pivot a conversation about voter fraud or noncitizen voting to one about rigorous voter verification.

  2. Leverage trust in local election workers to engender greater trust in the checks and balances to ensure only citizens can cast a ballot.

  3. Reinforce the strength of voting laws and the rigorous steps taken to ensure the law is followed.

DON'Ts:

  1. Don’t minimize the problem by saying voter fraud rarely happens - once is too many for most Americans.

  2. Don’t emphasize the tough penalties of voter fraud – this is not a compelling argument for the general public.

  3. Don’t repeat the leading phrase “noncitizen voting” - instead talk about checks and balances, voter verification, etc.

States United has also created state-specific microsites in English and Spanish that offer explainers about how elections work in each of those states:

DDIA also partnered with Lunario to produce Spanish-language explainer/pre-bunking videos about election security and noncitizen voting, which can be found here and here.