Eight Lessons Learned About Misinformation’s Spread Following Assassination Attempts
Insights from the 2018 stabbing of Former President and Then-Candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil
This eight-point guide aims to leverage lessons learned from the stabbing of Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro to offer partners insights on how to potentially cover and best react to misinformation spreading around the assassination attempt against Former President Donald.
Lesson Learned 1: Push back against assertions that the candidate attacked "has already won" the election. Deep penetration of this point of view could result in voter disengagement, or lower voter turnout.
Expect to see some growth in support for the “Trump has already won the presidential election” narrative. This idea, which may take hold on all sides of the political spectrum, impacts morale, plays into the narrative that individual votes “don’t matter,” and could lead to a reduction in overall political engagement and a decrease in voter turnout. In the Brazilian context, polls and online narratives reinforced each other, creating a vicious cycle in which numbers showed a moment of increased support resulting in narratives about increased support, and vice versa. Especially if upcoming polls show a surge in one candidate’s popularity and higher percentages of support, the notion that Trump "has already won" will likely peak and ebb. Try to avoid riding this wave.
DDIA suggests that partners emphasize that the final result of the U.S. presidential election will only be known in November. These communications should highlight that polling numbers are a snapshot of a moment in time, not a predictor of what’s to come.
Lesson Learned 2: Be clear about the emotional impacts of the incident and do not downplay the negative sentiments that come with acts of political violence.
Violence is a great motivator and also a great demoralizer. Some voters may be fired up, while others may retreat from engaging with politics and elections if they are continuously exposed to violent rhetoric and imagery. Be attentive to the circulation of violent imagery and video as this type of content can result in demobilization and alienation of voters.
DDIA recommends that partners be clear about the potential emotional impacts of the incident and not downplay its effects. Promote content that helps people overcome moments of fear or panic.
Lesson Learned 3: Calls for empathy will be used to shield the presidential candidate from scrutiny. Evaluate emotional language with care.
In the coming weeks, criticisms of the Republican candidate for president may be framed as inhumanity or disrespect for the man and his family. Unlike Bolsonaro in Brazil, Donald Trump was not hospitalized and will not need surgeries, but it is expected that his supporters will broadly and unreservedly demand respect (perhaps excessively) for the victim.
DDIA suggests that partners disseminate, where appropriate, updates about Trump's health, making it clear that the candidate is fine and that he must still be thoroughly evaluated as a presidential contender on the basis of his statements and policies.
Lesson Learned 4: Pay attention to religious rhetoric that paints the political candidate that was targeted as predestined to win the election.
In the first 24 hours following the attack against Donald Trump, users on social media and messaging apps flooded the ecosystem with images, videos, and infographics showing how Trump "narrowly escaped" being killed in Pennsylvania on July 13. This type of content typically garners religious reactions. Comments about him being saved by God are already frequent and are expected to become more popular, paving the way for the idea that the Republican is “predestined” to be re-elected and “save the country.”
DDIA suggests staying attentive to the positioning of religious entities and organizations. Falsehoods involving the Pope and Bolsonaro were common in Brazil in 2018.
Lesson Learned 5: Be prepared to deal with false documents being “leaked” as investigators dig into the incident.
On Sunday, July 14, President Joe Biden announced the creation of an independent task force directed to investigate the attack on Trump. False documents allegedly “leaked from the investigations” may proliferate on social media in the upcoming weeks, just as conspiracy theories about the involvement of the Deep State in this process have done. Influencers, pundits, or hosts of talk-show-like social media channels may frequently adopt the tone of "truth revealers" when communicating with their followers. There could be a deep dive into the past lives of task force members, trying to expose possible political biases. Transparency is key.
DDIA recommends that partners closely monitor the formation of the task force and amplify explanatory articles or fact-checks dismissing falsehoods about the investigations.
Lesson Learned 6: Don’t assume the perpetrator’s motivations before they are officially confirmed.
Trump's shooter, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, is under public scrutiny, as happened with Adelio Bispo (who stabbed Bolsonaro). Many stakeholders, from the FBI to online users, are seeking to find/understand Crooks’ motivation and to know more about him. At this moment, it is important to tread lightly and avoid assumptions. For example, it COULD be the case that Crooks had no political motivation to attack Trump. This would not be unprecedented. John Hinckley Jr. attempted to assassinate President Ronald Reagan in 1981 just to impress actress Jodi Foster. Adelio Bispo, in 2018, was considered mentally ill when arrested and had no clear political reason to go after Bolsonaro. Federal investigators in the U.S. say (as of July 15) "they’ve seen no indication as to what the motive of the attempted assassin was." Misinformation blossoms within information voids.
DDIA recommends avoiding amplification of any premature conclusions or unverified information regarding Crooks’ biography, profile or motivation. They can only inflame an already-volatile political conversation.
Lesson Learned 7: Some events may get canceled.
Though we have no indication Trump will step back from the campaign trail given his decision to attend the Republican National Convention as planned, it is possible that Trump's campaign will decide to cancel some public engagements to shield him both physically and politically, whether in warranted or unwarranted ways. In 2018, after being stabbed, Bolsonaro stopped holding rallies and did not return to participate in TV debates with other presidential candidates. If this happens, the decision to keep him away from political events will be framed entirely as fair and understandable (especially if Trump's poll numbers rise). Trump's detractors will be labeled as unsympathetic and/or inhumane for criticizing the possible absence of the Republican in spaces where democratic debates or discussions usually take place.
DDIA suggests that those at the front-lines of countering misinformation triple their attention to the online universe.
Lesson Learned 8: Avoid playing into insinuations that depict the attack as “staged” for political gain without proof.
Misinformation about this Saturday’s assassination attempt is spreading both among right-wing audiences and left-wing audiences. Among some supporters of Joe Biden, unverified assertions are being made about Donald Trump having orchestrated the incident for his own benefit. Political violence should never be treated lightly. Do not play into speculations about coordination that have not been proven to be factual.
DDIA suggests that partners avoid bringing attention to unverified claims before fact-based information has been triple-verified. Hard partisans on both sides of the political spectrum tend to see and believe misinformation more often than those who are uncertain - check for internal biases when deciding what to amplify.
About Us:
The Digital Democracy Institute of the Americas (DDIA) is bringing together insights and actors across the Western Hemisphere to shape a more participatory, inclusive, and resilient digital democracy. We apply research at the intersection of information integrity, belief, and behavior to build trust, connection, and capacity with Latino and Latin American communities and to shape policy interventions that bridge-build and depolarize shared information spaces for healthier democracies in the Americas. Learn more about our work at ddia.org.